Risk Dimensions · Sovereign Fiscal Monitor

Pick any sovereign / fiscal series by category, set frequency and range, and compare. Live from data.riskdimensions.io/api/sovereign. Monthly data rolls up to Q/A by the right rule (levels = period-end value, flows = sum); only completed periods show unless YTD is on. Mixed units? Switch to Index 100 to compare trajectories on one axis.

Live from U.S. Treasury fiscaldata · daily back to 1993-04-01 (publicly available range). 12M = 252-day % change. 63D Ann'd = 63-day return annualized (^4).

Live from fiscaldata · fiscal-year-end debt back to the founding. Linear by default — the vertical wall of recent debt is the point. Switch to Log to see both 1790 ($71M) and today ($39T) on one axis.

What we are compounding

Federal debt vs. wages vs. home prices (Case-Shiller), each rebased to 100 at 2000. You cannot out-volume a compounding gap.

Indexed to 100 at Jan 1981 · quarterly

Growth percentage since 1981-Q1 (1981 = 0%). US Equities = Wilshire 5000 (1981 → 2016) stitched to S&P 500 thereafter — FRED discontinued the Wilshire IDs in 2024, so the Wilshire history is from Mark's Jan 2026 Master Data tab. M2 = M2SL (last monthly value in each quarter). GDP = nominal quarterly. Source: sovereign.gdp_m2_equity_indexed view.

Each series indexed to 100 at 1994 · annual · live

Federal debt, M2 and nominal GDP against Industrial Production — the index of what America physically makes — all rebased to 100 at 1994 (first full year of debt-to-the-penny). The financial aggregates compound; physical output is the flat line. The compounding divergence, told from the real economy's side. Live from data.riskdimensions.io/api/sovereign/series (INDPRO_US, DEBT_TOTAL, M2_US, GDP_US).

Marketable Treasury securities by remaining maturity. Short-end concentration is the fiscal-dominance tell. Pick one period, or add a second to compare. Each period uses the latest monthly statement (MSPD) in or before the selected year — live from fiscaldata, cached.

Scope: marketable Treasury securities only (Bills, Notes, Bonds, TIPS, FRN) — the debt that gets auctioned, traded, and rolled in the market. Excludes non-marketable intragovernmental holdings (Social Security trust fund, Medicare, federal employee retirement). The shift between buckets is the fiscal-dominance signal — terming out vs rolling the front end. Picks the latest monthly statement in or before each selected year. MSPD coverage starts 2001 — 30Y back is not available. Live from fiscaldata; years are fetched on demand and cached.