U.S. federal debt, the maturity stack, and the compounding divergence we live inside, set alongside 14 additional countries.
Stocks (Total Return) Up 730x. The Economy Up 59x. Since 1960.
Since 1960, the S&P 500 with dividends reinvested has compounded roughly 730x (+73,000%) and M2 money supply 76x, while nominal GDP, the economy those equities are supposed to mirror, grew just 59x.
The sharp deviation in equity returns is not by accident. It is intentional. One part government funding, one part technological innovation. The result? A financial economy that is growing faster than the real economy.
RD Visual Essay · Macro Compounding
The market used to move with the economy.Not anymore.
The equity market has achieved escape velocity on the twin engines of technology and dollar debasement.
The series opens on 1960–1980, before the great asset inflation. Press Play to extend it and inspect any quarter directly.
Recession chapter
US equitiesM2GDPUS recession
Methodology / source. Growth since 1960 Q1. US equities are S&P 500 total return with dividends reinvested, reconstructed from Robert Shiller monthly price and dividends; M2 is FRED M2SL using the last monthly observation each quarter; GDP is nominal quarterly from FRED. Source-series nulls remain n/a.
Show data table (newest first)
Quarter
GDP %
M2 %
Equities %
Who that rising water table lifts, and who it leaves behind:
Asset owners win, wage earners lose: equities, homes, gold, and Bitcoin rise faster than wages.
The real economy (GDP) has been left behind by a financial economy that grows faster, and home prices show the same split.
Low unemployment masks the distortion: much of the job and healthcare growth is funded by deficit spending.
This is both a risk and an opportunity for investors, and one reason the Sovereign Monitor is one of the 4 key inputs into the Kestrel platform.
This is debasement read off a price chart. The Third Mandate, keep the sovereign solvent, quietly subordinates price stability, so base money keeps expanding and every financial asset floats up on it. The One Water Table: you think you hold diversified claims, but they all sit on the same monetary aquifer. Raise the water and every boat lifts, not because the cargo got more valuable, but because the yardstick got shorter. Press continue above and watch equities tear away from GDP after 2009, when the water table began rising in earnest.
U.S. Fiscal Snapshot
Phase 1 (US federal core) · daily debt & long arc fetched live from
fiscaldata.treasury.gov
· derived series snapshotted from sovereign.* views
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The lock doesn't pause for rallies.
$40 trillion, roughly $1 trillion every 90 days.
Interest cost now above defense spending.
The MOVE at 70 is not a clearing signal; bond vol asleep while duration bleeds is orderly distribution, not stability.
The math doesn't care who runs the Fed.
Series Explorer: Build Your Own (live)
Pick any sovereign / fiscal series by category, set frequency and range, and compare. Live from
data.riskdimensions.io/api/sovereign. Monthly data rolls up to Q/A by the right rule
(levels = period-end value, flows = sum); only completed periods show unless YTD is on.
Mixed units? Switch to Index 100 to compare trajectories on one axis.
Category
Series
Country
Frequency
Scale
Current period (flows)
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Show data table (partial/YTD rows marked *)
Federal Debt: The Long Arc (1790→)
Historical Debt Outstanding · annual
Live from fiscaldata · fiscal-year-end debt back to the founding. Linear by default; the vertical wall of recent debt is the point. Switch to Log to see both 1790 ($71M) and today ($40T) on one axis.
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Show data table (newest first · Year · Debt)
FY
Debt Outstanding ($)
The Compounding Divergence
What we are compounding
Federal debt vs. wages vs. home prices (Case-Shiller), each rebased to 100 at 2000. You cannot out-volume a compounding gap.
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Federal debtHome prices (Case-Shiller)Wages (avg hourly)
Show data table
Year
Debt idx
Wage idx
Home idx
Debt YoY
Wage YoY
Home YoY
Debt 20y
Wage 20y
Home 20y
Real vs Financial: Industrial Production vs Debt, Money & Output
Each series indexed to 100 at 1994 · annual · live
Federal debt, M2 and nominal GDP against Industrial Production, the index of what America physically makes, all rebased to 100 at 1994 (first full year of debt-to-the-penny). The financial aggregates compound; physical output is the flat line. The compounding divergence, told from the real economy's side. Live from data.riskdimensions.io/api/sovereign/series (INDPRO_US, DEBT_TOTAL, M2_US, GDP_US).
Industrial ProductionFederal debtM2Nominal GDP
Real Yields - The Inflation-Adjusted Curve
US 2Y and 10Y real yields · monthly · live
The real cost of sovereign funding. 10Y real yield uses FRED DFII10 where available, with US10Y minus 10Y breakeven as fallback. 2Y real yield is a proxy: US2Y minus Cleveland Fed 2Y expected inflation.
2Y real yield proxy10Y real yield2Y minus 10Y real slope
The Maturity Stack: Where We Issue
Marketable Treasury debt by remaining maturity
Marketable Treasury securities by remaining maturity. Short-end concentration is the fiscal-dominance tell. Pick one period, or add a second to compare. Each period uses the latest monthly statement (MSPD) in or before the selected year; live from fiscaldata, cached.
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The Maturity Stack: Over Time
Detailed Version
Marketable Treasury debt by maturity · multi-year overlay
Scope: marketable Treasury securities only (Bills, Notes, Bonds, TIPS, FRN), the debt that gets auctioned, traded, and rolled in the market. Excludes non-marketable intragovernmental holdings (Social Security trust fund, Medicare, federal employee retirement). The shift between buckets is the fiscal-dominance signal: terming out vs rolling the front end. Picks the latest monthly statement in or before each selected year. MSPD coverage starts 2001; 30Y back is not available. Live from fiscaldata; years are fetched on demand and cached.
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Show data (rows = bucket, columns = selected years, $ trillions)
On Debt: A Longer Memory
Risk Dimensions · Sovereign Fiscal Monitor · Phase 1 (US federal core).
Daily debt and long-arc charts pull live from
fiscaldata.treasury.gov
(CORS-enabled, no API key).
Derived series (compounding, debt/GDP, maturity) via data.riskdimensions.io/api/sovereign.
Public preview. Substack-gated access (same tier model as the Global Scorecard) coming soon.